Sat, Jan 3, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Washington Capitals 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 19 | 013 | 02 | 3 | 333 |
| WSH | 113 | 07 | 114 | 00 | 2 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Ilya Mikheyev · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 4:46WSHDylan StromeAssists: Ethen Frank, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 4:24CHITeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Andre Burakovsky · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 11:18WSHRyan LeonardAssists: Matt Roy, Anthony Beauvillier · Bat, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Ryan Leonard stopped
- 2. CHI Nick Lardis scored
- 3. WSH Dylan Strome scored
- 4. CHI Ryan Donato stopped
- 5. WSH Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 6. CHI Oliver Moore stopped
- 7. WSH Connor McMichael stopped
- 8. CHI Louis Crevier stopped
- 9. WSH Sonny Milano scored
- 10. CHI Andre Burakovsky scored
- 11. WSH Jakob Chychrun stopped
- 12. CHI Nick Foligno scored
Penalties (3)
- P2 3:20WSHJakob Chychrun: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:27CHIWyatt Kaiser: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:06WSHJakob Chychrun: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Greene won the faceoff against Sourdif
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – Bertuzzi – Greene14:08
xG 1.05–0.99 (51%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Foligno – Slaggert – Dach8:25
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Lardis – Moore10:10
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Donato – Mikheyev13:40
xG 0.58–0.72 (45%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Grzelcyk12:23
xG 0.93–0.52 (64%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- Kaiser – Levshunov18:22
xG 0.69–0.30 (69%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Murphy – Kaiser2:07
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMcMichael – Sourdif – Leonard7:01
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dowd – Frank – Leonard4:23
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Strome – McMichael – Leonard2:46
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Frank3:50
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry12:39
xG 1.00–0.72 (58%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry3:37
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin4:24
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).