Sat, Jan 3, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 4, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 216 | 113 | 17 | 436 |
| CGY | 211 | 03 | 19 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56CGYYan KuznetsovAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 11:19NSHErik HaulaAssists: Michael Bunting, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 12:52NSHErik HaulaAssists: Steven Stamkos, Michael Bunting · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 13:41CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Matt Coronato · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 4:08NSHMichael BuntingUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 12:49CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Mikael Backlund, Matt Coronato · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 19:31NSHNicolas HagueGWGAssists: Michael Bunting, Michael McCarron · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 13:15NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:15CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:15CGYJohn Beecher: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:15NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:15NSHMichael McCarron: Misconduct10 min
- P1 13:15CGYJohn Beecher: Misconduct10 min
- P1 15:20CGYKevin Bahl: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:57NSHFedor Svechkov: Holding2 min
- P2 9:52NSHNicolas Hague: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:52CGYJohn Beecher: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:55CGYBlake Coleman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:55NSHMichael Bunting: Embellishment2 min
- P3 2:05NSHErik Haula: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Haula – Bunting9:37
xG 0.52–0.08 (87%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Jost – Smith – Svechkov2:20
xG 0.04–0.04 (44%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg2:08
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Haula – Bunting – Evangelista2:26
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Blankenburg11:26
xG 0.63–0.10 (86%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Josi – Perbix13:39
xG 0.72–0.60 (55%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
- Hague – Barron2:23
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLomberg – Beecher – Zary2:03
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato13:23
xG 0.69–0.65 (52%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Farabee4:50
xG 0.01–0.02 (28%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Kadri – Farabee – Sharangovich5:44
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Weegar – Kuznetsov17:37
xG 0.94–0.96 (49%)attempts 19–22goals 1–2
- Andersson – Bahl20:38
xG 0.67–0.80 (46%)attempts 20–23goals 2–0
- Hanley – Brzustewicz9:19
xG 0.06–0.30 (15%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).