Sat, Jan 3, 2026·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Minnesota Wild 4, Los Angeles Kings 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 15 | 18 | 212 | 03 | 1 | 428 |
| LAK | 111 | 19 | 213 | 06 | 2 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alex Laferriere · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 8:28MINJake MiddletonAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 16:57LAKCorey PerryPPAssists: Quinton Byfield, Brandt Clarke · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 18:23MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 4:54LAKQuinton ByfieldUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG2–3
- P3 7:33MINBrock FaberAssists: Danila Yurov, Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 12:09LAKSamuel HeleniusAssists: Kevin Fiala, Alex Turcotte · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 17:03MINMatt BoldyAssists: Brock Faber, Marcus Foligno · Deflected, 0.15 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. LAK Kevin Fiala stopped
- 2. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 3. LAK Adrian Kempe scored
- 4. MIN Matt Boldy scored
- 5. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
- 6. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 7. LAK Brandt Clarke scored
- 8. MIN Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
Penalties (7)
- P2 0:12LAKQuinton Byfield: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:13MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:42LAKJoel Armia: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:30MINBrock Faber: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:07LAKQuinton Byfield: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:28LAKAlex Laferriere: Slashing2 min
- OT 3:28MINBrock Faber: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Byfield won the faceoff against Yurov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Yurov11:33
xG 0.79–0.44 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Foligno – Trenin – Sturm8:30
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:21
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Hinostroza – Hartman7:13
xG 0.06–1.56 (4%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Brodin13:56
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Middleton10:52
xG 0.32–0.65 (33%)attempts 11–20goals 1–1
- Hughes – Faber17:24
xG 0.51–1.67 (24%)attempts 16–21goals 2–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Turcotte – Kuzmenko9:30
xG 0.87–0.19 (82%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Laferriere8:48
xG 0.46–0.25 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Armia – Foegele – Byfield8:44
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Perry – Malott – Helenius3:04
xG 0.01–0.09 (9%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Ceci15:14
xG 1.55–0.57 (73%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Edmundson – Clarke11:21
xG 0.87–0.34 (72%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Doughty – Clarke2:11
xG 0.09–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).