Sun, Jan 4, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Montréal Canadiens 4, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 213 | 05 | 14 | 428 |
| DAL | 18 | 18 | 19 | 02 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:42MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault, Alexandre Carrier · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 13:53DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:14DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Thomas Harley · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 11:59MTLOliver KapanenAssists: Ivan Demidov, Juraj Slafkovský · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 18:39MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Slap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 11:07DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 3:40MTLLane HutsonGWGAssists: Phillip Danault · Snap, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:18MTLIvan Demidov: Holding2 min
- P1 19:33DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:36DALIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:13MTLZachary Bolduc: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:00DALEsa Lindell: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:10DALSam Steel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:49MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:00DALWyatt Johnston: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Kapanen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Blais – Veleno – Beck5:21
xG 0.05–0.08 (41%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Bolduc7:40
xG 0.26–0.38 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Veleno2:00
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Texier – Caufield9:47
xG 0.19–0.59 (25%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Carrier – Hutson16:32
xG 0.76–0.71 (52%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Struble – Xhekaj7:38
xG 0.14–0.48 (23%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Matheson – Dobson14:55
xG 0.15–0.84 (15%)attempts 6–16goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Rantanen – Johnston9:00
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Faksa – Erne – Bäck5:04
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Hintz – Robertson – Bourque10:00
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Benn – Steel – Hryckowian5:19
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley2:21
xG 0.69–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen12:30
xG 0.72–0.15 (82%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Lyubushkin9:59
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).