Sun, Jan 4, 2026·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 121 | 211 | 12 | 543 |
| CBJ | 312 | 16 | 07 | 00 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50PITVille KoivunenAssists: Ben Kindel, Jack St. Ivany · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 8:21CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Denton Mateychuk · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 8:48CBJMason MarchmentAssists: Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 18:38CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Zach Werenski, Denton Mateychuk · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 0:47CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Boone Jenner, Mathieu Olivier · Snap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 16:51PITNoel AcciariAssists: Connor Dewar · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 3:28PITTommy NovakPPAssists: Ben Kindel · Slap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 19:46PITRickard RakellAssists: Anthony Mantha, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.20 xG4–4
- OT 2:22PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Egor Chinakhov · Backhand, 0.19 xG5–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:14CBJIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:37CBJAdam Fantilli: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:06CBJDmitri Voronkov: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAcciari – Dewar – Lizotte11:02
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Chinakhov – Koivunen – Kindel9:15
xG 0.81–0.46 (64%)attempts 21–4goals 1–1
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell14:30
xG 1.04–0.88 (54%)attempts 21–15goals 0–1
- Mantha – Novak – Brazeau8:07
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon16:08
xG 0.98–0.30 (76%)attempts 25–7goals 0–0
- Shea – St. Ivany13:23
xG 1.31–0.70 (65%)attempts 23–13goals 2–2
- Letang – Kulak15:34
xG 0.63–0.94 (40%)attempts 22–19goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchment – Marchenko – Fantilli14:20
xG 0.78–0.52 (60%)attempts 15–17goals 2–1
- Gaunce – Aston-Reese – Johnson7:05
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Coyle – Jenner – Olivier13:50
xG 0.53–1.23 (30%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
- Heinen – Voronkov – Sillinger8:48
xG 0.20–1.01 (16%)attempts 4–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Severson – Provorov18:53
xG 1.10–1.12 (50%)attempts 16–24goals 1–0
- Werenski – Mateychuk18:05
xG 0.67–0.69 (49%)attempts 19–20goals 3–0
- Provorov – Fabbro2:13
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).