Sun, Jan 4, 2026·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Colorado Avalanche 1, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 012 | 05 | 128 |
| FLA | 114 | 15 | 06 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:27FLASam BennettUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:51COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Josh Manson, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 18:12FLAAaron EkbladGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:04FLAUvis Balinskis: Interference2 min
- P1 15:44COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:49COLJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P2 3:22FLAMackie Samoskevich: Holding2 min
- P2 8:48FLAJeff Petry: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:52FLAEvan Rodrigues: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:46COLSamuel Girard: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Lehkonen – Nichushkin8:05
xG 1.01–0.46 (69%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Kelly – Bardakov – Brindley4:21
xG 0.39–0.04 (90%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Colton – Drury4:42
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Olofsson – Necas2:39
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson6:46
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Solovyov – Malinski4:50
xG 0.38–0.05 (87%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Girard – Malinski3:09
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell10:49
xG 0.54–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Greer – Rodrigues – Samoskevich9:37
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Marchand – Verhaeghe – Bennett9:18
xG 0.51–0.82 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Kunin – Boqvist – Studnicka3:48
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Mikkola2:09
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling15:39
xG 0.78–0.72 (52%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Petry – Sebrango8:27
xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).