Sun, Jan 4, 2026·United Center, Chicago
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 18 | 15 | 02 | 00 | 215 |
| CHI | 14 | 08 | 17 | 11 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:40VGKBrandon SaadAssists: Brett Howden, Alexander Holtz · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 12:38CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Alex Vlasic, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 0:43VGKMark StoneAssists: Jack Eichel, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 11:36CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Ryan Greene, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- OT 1:18CHITyler BertuzziGWGAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Artyom Levshunov · Snap, 0.34 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 9:55VGKJeremy Lauzon: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 14:44CHIRyan Greene: Holding2 min
- P3 13:35VGKJaycob Megna: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Foligno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt8:18
xG 0.40–0.14 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Stone – Eichel – Marner2:03
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Saad – Howden – Holtz9:44
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 3–13goals 1–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel12:16
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Hanifin17:58
xG 0.90–0.31 (74%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Lauzon – Korczak15:48
xG 0.70–0.12 (85%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Megna – Whitecloud14:06
xG 0.33–0.96 (26%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – Bertuzzi – Greene11:14
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Foligno – Slaggert – Dach10:05
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Lardis – Moore7:55
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Donato – Mikheyev11:21
xG 0.15–0.57 (20%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaiser – Levshunov15:43
xG 0.50–0.45 (53%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Levshunov3:23
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Murphy – Grzelcyk12:28
xG 0.21–0.25 (45%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).