Tue, Jan 6, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 06 | 18 | 212 | 15 | 431 |
| WPG | 15 | 14 | 16 | 05 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:16WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Jonathan Toews, Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 12:04WPGLuke SchennAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 19:09VGKMark StonePPAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 8:13VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Noah Hanifin, Tomas Hertl · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 14:56WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 15:55VGKReilly SmithAssists: Brandon Saad, Ben Hutton · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 4:47VGKTomas HertlPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:16WPGJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:17WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:17VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:31VGKMark Stone: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:57WPGDylan Samberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:23VGKZach Whitecloud: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:17WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:09WPGDylan Samberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Kolesar – Howden8:51
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Sissons – Dorofeyev – Bowman4:19
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel9:18
xG 0.29–0.09 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Saad – Marner6:08
xG 0.09–0.01 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Whitecloud3:52
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 0–0
- Hutton – Hanifin10:09
xG 0.51–0.08 (87%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud12:53
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Nyquist – Namestnikov – Pearson6:56
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Barron9:26
xG 0.03–0.11 (23%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Vilardi – Perfetti9:54
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo14:19
xG 0.11–0.67 (14%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey15:26
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Schenn – DeMelo2:03
xG 0.02–0.02 (41%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Samberg – Pionk12:29
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).