Wed, Jan 7, 2026·United Center, Chicago
St. Louis Blues 3, Chicago Blackhawks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 113 | 18 | 19 | 330 |
| CHI | 19 | 417 | 29 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27STLTyler TuckerAssists: Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 9:26CHINick LardisPPAssists: Oliver Moore, Matt Grzelcyk · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 7:41CHIOliver MoorePPAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 8:22STLOtto StenbergUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 8:57CHIConnor MurphyUnassisted · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 12:27CHILandon SlaggertGWGAssists: Colton Dach, Connor Murphy · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–4
- P2 17:24CHIJason DickinsonAssists: Louis Crevier · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 5:11CHIAndre BurakovskyPPAssists: Ryan Greene, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–6
- P3 12:56CHILouis CrevierAssists: Landon Slaggert, Alex Vlasic · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–7
- P3 13:19STLNathan WalkerAssists: Alexey Toropchenko, Philip Broberg · Bat, 0.07 xG3–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:40CHIArtyom Levshunov: Holding2 min
- P1 5:28CHIIlya Mikheyev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:01STLColton Parayko: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:01CHIArtyom Levshunov: Holding2 min
- P2 6:38STLLogan Mailloux: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:53CHIConnor Murphy: Holding2 min
- P3 2:24CHIRyan Donato: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:43STLDalibor Dvorsky: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:38STLJordan Binnington: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:11CHITyler Bertuzzi: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Greene won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kyrou – Neighbours4:01
xG 0.49–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Snuggerud6:56
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko6:05
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Kyrou – Thomas – Neighbours6:23
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Tucker12:01
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 14–8goals 2–2
- Parayko – Broberg15:18
xG 0.73–1.06 (41%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
- Fowler – Mailloux13:16
xG 0.59–0.98 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – Bertuzzi – Greene7:42
xG 0.95–0.49 (66%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Dickinson – Donato – Mikheyev8:15
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Lardis – Moore7:40
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Burakovsky – Donato – Greene2:12
xG 0.13–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Grzelcyk13:08
xG 1.57–0.10 (94%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Crevier10:23
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
- Kaiser – Levshunov15:54
xG 0.30–1.19 (20%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).