Wed, Jan 7, 2026·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Ottawa Senators 1, Utah Mammoth 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 014 | 012 | 133 |
| UTA | 29 | 05 | 17 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59UTALawson CrouseAssists: Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:20UTAJohn MarinoGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Nate Schmidt · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 17:41OTTRidly GreigAssists: Artem Zub, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 5:41UTADaniil ButAssists: Jack McBain, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 0:33OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:08UTADylan Guenther: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:06OTTJordan Spence: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:48UTAClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:05OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:41UTANick Schmaltz: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:41OTTDavid Perron: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Cozens – Stützle8:15
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Greig9:40
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Perron – Cousins – Halliday4:18
xG 0.08–0.01 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Tkachuk – Pinto6:09
xG 0.06–0.75 (7%)attempts 3–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub11:20
xG 0.66–0.39 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Spence – Kleven8:33
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Spence – Sanderson4:04
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- Carcone – McBain – But8:06
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Tanev – Yamamoto7:28
xG 0.04–0.10 (28%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Keller9:58
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Hayton – Peterka – Guenther5:08
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Durzi14:17
xG 0.82–0.32 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Marino10:09
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Cole – Marino4:45
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).