Thu, Jan 8, 2026·TD Garden, Boston
Calgary Flames 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 19 | 013 | 129 |
| BOS | 213 | 210 | 07 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:48BOSSean KuralyAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:06BOSElias LindholmGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Marat Khusnutdinov · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 14:02BOSMason LohreiAssists: Sean Kuraly, Tanner Jeannot · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 17:59BOSCasey MittelstadtAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 18:44CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Morgan Frost, Kevin Bahl · Snap, 0.25 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:36BOSMark Kastelic: Interference2 min
- P1 19:36CGYBlake Coleman: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:17CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:44BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
- P3 5:48BOSJonathan Aspirot: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:37CGYJoel Farabee: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Sharangovich – Zary10:07
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato8:55
xG 0.73–0.51 (59%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Klapka6:47
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Farabee11:41
xG 0.09–0.76 (11%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl15:18
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
- Hanley – Brzustewicz10:38
xG 0.24–0.47 (33%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
- Weegar – Kuznetsov14:30
xG 0.86–1.20 (42%)attempts 17–25goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestGeekie – Steeves – Minten11:31
xG 0.89–0.47 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov10:08
xG 0.42–0.07 (86%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic9:57
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt10:20
xG 0.45–0.67 (40%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcAvoy – Aspirot12:38
xG 1.01–0.28 (78%)attempts 24–7goals 1–0
- Peeke – Lohrei12:46
xG 1.04–0.69 (60%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Zadorov – Peeke2:20
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).