Thu, Jan 8, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vancouver Canucks 1, Detroit Red Wings 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 010 | 14 | 010 | 124 |
| DET | 110 | 28 | 27 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:31DETPatrick KanePPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 5:09DETAxel Sandin-PellikkaGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 7:03VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 10:10DETJ.T. CompherAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Axel Sandin-Pellikka · Snap, 0.27 xG1–3
- P3 16:07DETPatrick KaneENAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.70 xG1–4
- P3 18:10DETLucas RaymondUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:19DETSimon Edvinsson: Holding2 min
- P1 13:13VANMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:47VANZeev Buium: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:56VANDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:46DETMason Appleton: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKane – O'Connor – Räty7:22
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ohgren – Sasson10:14
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Hoglander – O'Connor – Räty2:52
xG 0.02–0.04 (30%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Boeser – Pettersson3:40
xG 0.18–0.22 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Hronek2:55
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hronek – Buium14:34
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Willander11:20
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Compher – Raymond11:55
xG 1.04–0.56 (65%)attempts 17–20goals 2–0
- Larkin – Kasper – Finnie9:50
xG 0.44–0.27 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat12:13
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Appleton – Rasmussen – Leonard8:32
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBernard-Docker – Johansson10:46
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka13:38
xG 0.88–0.65 (57%)attempts 14–18goals 2–0
- Seider – Edvinsson19:54
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 17–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).