Thu, Jan 8, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 011 | 06 | 112 | 129 |
| PIT | 17 | 217 | 15 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:39PITErik KarlssonAssists: Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 5:23PITConnor DewarGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 19:07PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 2:55NJDLuke HughesPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 13:26PITBlake LizotteAssists: Noel Acciari, Connor Dewar · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:16PITConnor Dewar: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:16NJDTimo Meier: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:38NJDConnor Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:32PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:30NJDBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBratt – Hischier – Hughes12:37
xG 0.61–0.14 (82%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Meier – Gritsyuk – Mercer10:52
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Palat – Noesen – Glendening6:30
xG 0.04–0.26 (13%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Brown – Glass – Cotter11:35
xG 0.71–1.17 (38%)attempts 7–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes9:26
xG 0.53–0.13 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler13:54
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Hughes – Nemec5:32
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell12:46
xG 0.72–0.42 (63%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte9:14
xG 0.37–0.19 (65%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Mantha – Novak – Brazeau8:54
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Chinakhov – Kindel12:08
xG 0.46–1.15 (28%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon17:06
xG 0.88–0.62 (59%)attempts 22–18goals 1–0
- Shea – St. Ivany11:51
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Letang – Kulak19:04
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).