Thu, Jan 8, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 4, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 112 | 211 | 430 |
| WPG | 311 | 03 | 02 | 316 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:11WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Alex Iafallo · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 17:02EDMVasily PodkolzinAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Ty Emberson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 18:16WPGTanner PearsonAssists: Cole Koepke · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 18:56WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 19:39EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 8:19EDMZach HymanAssists: Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 10:37EDMEvan BouchardPPGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:53WPGNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:10EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:34WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:34EDMTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:21WPGNino Niederreiter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 14:24EDMJack Roslovic: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:06
xG 0.78–0.36 (69%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Roslovic – Howard – Savoie8:48
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 0–2
- Janmark – Lazar – Frederic4:04
xG 0.02–0.14 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin10:01
xG 0.38–0.59 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:35
xG 1.81–0.66 (73%)attempts 24–9goals 1–0
- Stillman – Emberson11:44
xG 0.43–0.29 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Nurse – Stastney15:16
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Vilardi – Perfetti9:45
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Pearson – Koepke – Zhilkin6:00
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo12:15
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 2–2
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Barron11:40
xG 0.29–1.19 (20%)attempts 4–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Stanley11:22
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey6:01
xG 0.39–0.33 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk11:56
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).