Thu, Jan 8, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 28 | 06 | 111 | 325 |
| VGK | 17 | 38 | 111 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:24CBJBoone JennerAssists: Zach Werenski, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 10:41CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Sean Monahan, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 12:20VGKReilly SmithAssists: Ben Hutton, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 5:19VGKReilly SmithAssists: Mitch Marner, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 13:07VGKJack EichelAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 18:44VGKMark StonePPGWGAssists: Tomas Hertl, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 14:28CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Ivan Provorov, Adam Fantilli · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 16:14VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:04VGKKeegan Kolesar: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:28CBJMathieu Olivier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:39CBJBrendan Gaunce: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Fantilli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli13:24
xG 0.91–0.17 (85%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Jenner – Monahan – Johnson12:54
xG 0.97–0.38 (72%)attempts 17–11goals 2–1
- Gaunce – Aston-Reese – Pyyhtia8:56
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger11:40
xG 0.43–0.68 (39%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Mateychuk14:19
xG 0.72–0.37 (66%)attempts 17–8goals 2–2
- Severson – Provorov15:45
xG 0.60–0.49 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Werenski – Provorov2:45
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Kolesar – Howden9:11
xG 0.74–0.01 (99%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Sissons – Dorofeyev – Bowman5:42
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel17:05
xG 0.43–0.77 (36%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
- Smith – Saad – Marner9:24
xG 0.18–0.67 (21%)attempts 3–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Hanifin – Whitecloud18:06
xG 0.85–1.02 (46%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- Hutton – Coghlan15:32
xG 0.63–0.87 (42%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Lauzon – Korczak15:17
xG 0.24–0.70 (26%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).