Fri, Jan 9, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Los Angeles Kings 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 05 | 17 | 012 | 124 |
| WPG | 29 | 37 | 04 | 520 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:31WPGVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Logan Stanley, Nino Niederreiter · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 18:05WPGCole KoepkeGWGAssists: Dylan Samberg, Tanner Pearson · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 2:07WPGJonathan ToewsAssists: Colin Miller, Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 9:32LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Taylor Ward, Warren Foegele · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 12:35WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P2 19:17WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Cole Perfetti, Gabriel Vilardi · Slap, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:28WPGKyle Connor: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:33LAKKevin Fiala: Holding2 min
- P2 9:32WPGNino Niederreiter: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 11:04LAKAdrian Kempe: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:04WPGLogan Stanley: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turcotte won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFoegele – Byfield – Ward5:50
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Malott – Helenius – Ward3:09
xG 0.25–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Fiala – Turcotte – Kuzmenko12:37
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Lee – Helenius – Ward2:59
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Clarke4:18
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Doughty – Moverare2:42
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Doughty – Anderson11:29
xG 0.57–0.53 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Namestnikov9:53
xG 0.52–0.64 (45%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo14:53
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Pearson – Koepke – Zhilkin7:22
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 0–12goals 0–0
- Toews – Vilardi – Perfetti10:06
xG 0.50–1.11 (31%)attempts 10–22goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Miller – Samberg14:08
xG 0.70–0.77 (47%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey17:46
xG 0.51–0.83 (38%)attempts 16–22goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stanley13:26
xG 0.09–0.83 (10%)attempts 5–24goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).