Fri, Jan 9, 2026·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
St. Louis Blues 2, Utah Mammoth 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 013 | 26 | 09 | 228 |
| UTA | 16 | 29 | 18 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:10UTANick SchmaltzAssists: Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 7:45UTALawson CrouseAssists: Clayton Keller, John Marino · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 7:55STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Nathan Walker · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 11:43UTASean DurziGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Lawson Crouse · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 16:27STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 6:57UTANick SchmaltzPPAssists: JJ Peterka, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.19 xG2–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:02STLAlexey Toropchenko: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:02UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:30UTAAlexander Kerfoot: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:39UTABrandon Tanev: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 6:39STLBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:39UTABrandon Tanev: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:39STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:40UTALawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:40STLRobert Thomas: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:40STLTyler Tucker: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:25UTANick DeSimone: Holding2 min
- P2 18:11STLPhilip Broberg: Holding2 min
- P3 1:53UTADylan Guenther: Interference2 min
- P3 6:06STLJimmy Snuggerud: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:37UTADylan Guenther: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carcone won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestKyrou – Thomas – Neighbours8:49
xG 1.36–0.46 (75%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko5:54
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Snuggerud9:37
xG 0.44–0.60 (42%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Berggren – Dvorsky – Stenberg7:11
xG 0.04–0.29 (13%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg13:58
xG 1.46–0.39 (79%)attempts 22–14goals 1–1
- Faulk – Fowler5:49
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Tucker – Mailloux2:27
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Crouse – Keller10:43
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 17–9goals 3–0
- Hayton – Peterka – Guenther8:50
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Carcone – McBain – But6:55
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Stenlund – Tanev – Guenther2:40
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Marino12:35
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Cole – DeSimone9:13
xG 0.23–0.29 (45%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Durzi16:08
xG 0.59–1.34 (31%)attempts 16–17goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).