Sat, Jan 10, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 013 | 09 | 029 |
| COL | 215 | 17 | 19 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:58COLBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Ross Colton, Gavin Brindley · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 17:28COLVictor OlofssonAssists: Jack Drury, Parker Kelly · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 10:30COLIlya SolovyovAssists: Parker Kelly, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 8:33COLBrent BurnsAssists: Zakhar Bardakov, Gavin Brindley · Slap, 0.03 xG0–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:25CBJKirill Marchenko: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:53COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:23COLVictor Olofsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:49CBJAdam Fantilli: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaunce – Heinen – Pyyhtia8:58
xG 1.02–0.20 (83%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Jenner – Monahan – Johnson11:08
xG 1.04–0.45 (70%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Coyle – Marchenko – Fantilli11:22
xG 0.89–0.83 (52%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Olivier – Voronkov – Sillinger9:03
xG 0.09–0.37 (19%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov14:48
xG 1.24–0.59 (68%)attempts 25–14goals 0–1
- Fabbro – Mateychuk2:13
xG 0.38–0.01 (99%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Werenski – Mateychuk11:24
xG 0.82–0.57 (59%)attempts 19–19goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Kelly – Drury10:59
xG 0.37–0.06 (87%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas14:38
xG 1.14–1.44 (44%)attempts 20–26goals 0–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Colton10:07
xG 0.16–0.53 (24%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Tynan – Bardakov – Brindley7:12
xG 0.20–0.99 (17%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Girard3:08
xG 0.66–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Girard – Solovyov7:52
xG 0.45–0.05 (91%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Manson – Solovyov2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).