Sat, Jan 10, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Seattle Kraken 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 14 | 04 | 14 | 212 |
| CAR | 112 | 011 | 213 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23CARLogan StankovenAssists: K'Andre Miller · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 14:13SEAMatty BeniersUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 5:56SEABerkly CattonAssists: Ryan Winterton · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 10:37CARJordan MartinookAssists: Jordan Staal, Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 13:50CARWilliam CarrierGWGAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Jordan Staal · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 18:11CARSean Walker: Holding2 min
- P2 17:24SEARyker Evans: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jankowski won the faceoff against Meyers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Schwartz – Gaudreau – Tolvanen11:58
xG 0.59–0.70 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- McCann – Kakko – Beniers13:31
xG 0.40–0.77 (34%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Kartye – Melanson – Meyers10:05
xG 0.17–0.55 (24%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Winterton – Wright – Catton10:17
xG 0.28–0.83 (25%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Oleksiak – Evans13:32
xG 0.40–0.72 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Lindgren – Fleury15:08
xG 0.49–0.94 (34%)attempts 14–24goals 1–1
- Larsson – Dunn21:22
xG 0.24–1.57 (13%)attempts 11–27goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Carrier – Robinson7:57
xG 0.66–0.04 (94%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis12:09
xG 0.59–0.15 (80%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake12:23
xG 0.71–0.42 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Ehlers – Aho – Svechnikov12:57
xG 0.78–0.63 (55%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield15:35
xG 1.20–0.24 (83%)attempts 15–6goals 2–1
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin14:04
xG 0.87–0.26 (77%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Walker – Miller18:12
xG 1.14–0.77 (60%)attempts 25–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).