Sat, Jan 10, 2026·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
New York Islanders 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 211 | 08 | 12 | 428 |
| MIN | 211 | 18 | 017 | 00 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:51MINBen JonesAssists: Brock Faber, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 4:18NYIJean-Gabriel PageauUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–1
- P1 15:25MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 1:29NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 8:26MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Daemon Hunt, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 19:34NYICasey CizikasSHAssists: Simon Holmstrom · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–3
- OT 1:34NYISimon HolmstromGWGAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Jonathan Drouin · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:23NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:58MINRyan Hartman: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:28NYICalum Ritchie: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:59NYIScott Mayfield: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:56MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:25MINDanila Yurov: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:18NYITony DeAngelo: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Yurov won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Gatcomb – Tsyplakov6:42
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Pageau – Holmstrom – Shabanov11:07
xG 1.22–1.00 (55%)attempts 9–17goals 2–0
- Drouin – Heineman – Ritchie8:45
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Duclair – Barzal11:16
xG 0.61–0.83 (42%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo11:55
xG 1.54–0.64 (71%)attempts 19–9goals 2–1
- Mayfield – Pelech2:59
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Schaefer2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Yurov12:32
xG 1.99–0.48 (80%)attempts 23–9goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Trenin – Jones5:49
xG 0.39–0.19 (68%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Tarasenko – Sturm8:18
xG 0.04–0.21 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Boldy8:20
xG 0.57–1.40 (29%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Faber19:54
xG 1.52–0.71 (68%)attempts 29–16goals 1–0
- Middleton – Hunt10:35
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin12:07
xG 1.14–1.69 (40%)attempts 15–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).