Sat, Jan 10, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 17 | 112 | 111 | 00 | 1 | 430 |
| EDM | 16 | 110 | 15 | 05 | 0 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:12EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 17:50LAKCorey PerryPPAssists: Brandt Clarke, Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 1:07EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Evan Bouchard · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 3:42LAKAndre LeeAssists: Quinton Byfield, Taylor Ward · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 6:21LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Brandt Clarke, Adrian Kempe · Tip-in, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 9:20EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. EDM Connor McDavid stopped
- 2. LAK Adrian Kempe scored
- 3. EDM Leon Draisaitl stopped
- 4. LAK Brandt Clarke stopped
- 5. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:43EDMDarnell Nurse: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:40LAKBrandt Clarke: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:36EDMIsaac Howard: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:42LAKAndrei Kuzmenko: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:06LAKAdrian Kempe: Slashing2 min
- OT 4:31LAKQuinton Byfield: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Byfield
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLee – Helenius – Ward5:34
xG 0.52–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kempe – Laferriere – Malott10:56
xG 0.61–0.49 (55%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Fiala – Turcotte – Kuzmenko11:31
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Perry – Foegele – Byfield12:37
xG 0.34–0.50 (41%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson17:35
xG 0.76–0.48 (61%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Clarke13:12
xG 0.36–0.49 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Dumoulin – Ceci14:02
xG 0.12–0.47 (20%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:55
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin12:48
xG 0.69–0.51 (58%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Janmark – Lazar – Frederic5:41
xG 0.17–0.00 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Howard – Savoie8:13
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard19:39
xG 1.13–0.78 (59%)attempts 19–21goals 2–1
- Nurse – Stastney3:53
xG 0.17–0.34 (34%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Regula – Stastney9:09
xG 0.12–0.39 (23%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).