Sun, Jan 11, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
New Jersey Devils 3, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 213 | 06 | 327 |
| WPG | 18 | 25 | 19 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:50WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Dylan Samberg · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 19:27NJDNico HischierAssists: Luke Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 1:05NJDCody GlassAssists: Luke Hughes, Jack Hughes · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 2:36WPGJonathan ToewsAssists: Cole Perfetti · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 8:08NJDCody GlassAssists: Jack Hughes, Johnathan Kovacevic · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 17:57WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Cole Perfetti, Josh Morrissey · Bat, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 6:17WPGTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Cole Koepke · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 16:41NJDArseny Gritsyuk: Interference2 min
- P2 4:56NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Holding2 min
- P2 13:44WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBratt – Hischier – Hughes15:16
xG 1.37–0.06 (96%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Palat – Glendening – Cotter5:32
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Brown – Glass – Gritsyuk9:13
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Meier – Hischier – Hughes2:44
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes14:26
xG 0.79–0.28 (74%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Siegenthaler – Kovacevic15:41
xG 0.82–0.69 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Hughes – Nemec5:23
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Vilardi – Perfetti11:37
xG 0.80–0.35 (70%)attempts 7–13goals 2–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Namestnikov11:48
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Pearson – Koepke – Zhilkin5:36
xG 0.17–0.37 (32%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo13:14
xG 0.37–0.92 (29%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Stanley4:37
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Miller – Stanley4:13
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Stanley – Pionk2:51
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).