Sun, Jan 11, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vegas Golden Knights 7, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 213 | 310 | 29 | 732 |
| SJS | 19 | 15 | 06 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:19VGKJack EichelAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jeremy Lauzon · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 9:33SJSCollin GrafAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 10:57VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 4:19VGKJack EichelGWGAssists: Mark Stone · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 11:00VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Mark Stone, Pavel Dorofeyev · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
- P2 12:25VGKZach WhitecloudAssists: Tomas Hertl, Noah Hanifin · Slap, 0.01 xG5–1
- P2 16:29SJSAlexander WennbergAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
- P3 17:03VGKShea TheodoreENAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–2
- P3 18:59VGKTomas HertlAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Noah Hanifin · Slap, 0.06 xG7–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:09VGKNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:54SJSTimothy Liljegren: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:48VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:11VGKJeremy Lauzon: Holding2 min
- P2 9:33SJSSam Dickinson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:05SJSWilliam Eklund: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:13VGKJack Eichel: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:11VGKCole Reinhardt: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:28SJSTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Marner – Dorofeyev10:51
xG 0.65–0.16 (80%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel6:16
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
- Sissons – Reinhardt – Bowman7:06
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Sissons – Kolesar – Holtz3:26
xG 0.02–0.10 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTheodore – Lauzon13:51
xG 1.04–0.42 (71%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud13:41
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 2–2
- Hutton – Korczak11:53
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk8:25
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Regenda8:28
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Eklund – Celebrini – Chernyshov11:58
xG 0.30–0.61 (33%)attempts 7–15goals 0–3
- Skinner – Graf – Misa8:41
xG 0.20–0.65 (24%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Liljegren2:25
xG 0.19–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Dickinson10:45
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Liljegren – Dickinson2:17
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).