Mon, Jan 12, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Seattle Kraken 4, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 09 | 29 | 211 | 429 |
| NYR | 211 | 04 | 07 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:08NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Artemi Panarin, Carson Soucy · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 5:31NYRSam CarrickUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 1:00SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 4:27SEAJordan EberleAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Matty Beniers · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 12:02SEABerkly CattonGWGAssists: Shane Wright, Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 19:50SEAJared McCannENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:36NYRJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:53SEARyker Evans: Interference2 min
- P3 5:21NYRVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:28SEAEeli Tolvanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Gaudreau – Tolvanen9:51
xG 0.42–0.07 (85%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – Kakko – Beniers11:02
xG 0.46–0.21 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- McCann – Wright – Catton8:52
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers2:37
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindgren – Fleury15:37
xG 1.10–0.38 (74%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:24
xG 0.88–0.42 (68%)attempts 13–14goals 2–2
- Oleksiak – Evans12:07
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Brodzinski – Raddysh7:33
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Cuylle11:07
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Lafrenière – Othmann – Laba9:50
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Miller – Perreault12:22
xG 0.20–1.25 (14%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Soucy – Morrow12:19
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Schneider16:16
xG 0.41–0.90 (31%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
- Borgen – Robertson15:16
xG 0.67–1.20 (36%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).