Mon, Jan 12, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vancouver Canucks 3, Montréal Canadiens 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 27 | 09 | 323 |
| MTL | 113 | 214 | 314 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:53VANElias PetterssonAssists: Linus Karlsson, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 18:13MTLNoah DobsonPPAssists: Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:50VANEvander KaneAssists: Aatu Räty · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 4:31MTLAlexandre CarrierAssists: Nick Suzuki, Alexandre Texier · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 4:51MTLAlexandre CarrierAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Ivan Demidov · Snap, 0.25 xG2–3
- P2 9:42VANMax SassonAssists: Drew O'Connor, Pierre-Olivier Joseph · Snap, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 0:29MTLMike MathesonGWGAssists: Cole Caufield, Alexandre Texier · Snap, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 1:07MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Ivan Demidov, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 6:05MTLOliver KapanenAssists: Ivan Demidov, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.09 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:09VANBrock Boeser: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:19MTLAlexandre Carrier: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:48MTLNoah Dobson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Karlsson11:26
xG 0.50–0.90 (36%)attempts 8–22goals 1–2
- Boeser – Garland – Kampf14:18
xG 0.78–1.30 (37%)attempts 12–20goals 0–2
- Kane – Hoglander – Räty9:21
xG 0.53–1.06 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- O'Connor – Ohgren – Sasson9:18
xG 0.16–0.74 (18%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Joseph2:13
xG 0.21–0.05 (79%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Mancini15:03
xG 0.94–0.84 (53%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- Myers – Joseph13:49
xG 0.59–0.93 (39%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Texier – Caufield14:56
xG 1.25–0.36 (78%)attempts 26–8goals 2–0
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov12:06
xG 1.41–0.60 (70%)attempts 20–8goals 3–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Bolduc11:20
xG 0.98–0.69 (58%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
- Blais – Veleno – Beck8:31
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Hutson12:41
xG 1.27–0.20 (86%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Dobson – Guhle2:08
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Matheson – Dobson16:00
xG 1.17–0.84 (58%)attempts 24–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).