Mon, Jan 12, 2026·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
New Jersey Devils 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 19 | 110 | 310 | 529 |
| MIN | 06 | 19 | 18 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:07NJDDawson MercerAssists: Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 13:41MINRyan HartmanAssists: Brock Faber, Marcus Johansson · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 19:52NJDOndrej PalatAssists: Nico Hischier, Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 7:28NJDJesper BrattGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 7:49NJDJesper BrattAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Brenden Dillon · Tip-in, 0.69 xG4–1
- P3 9:39NJDOndrej PalatAssists: Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–1
- P3 19:41MINMarcus FolignoPPAssists: Jonas Brodin, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:22MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:17MINQuinn Hughes: Interference2 min
- P3 16:06NJDLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:25NJDBrenden Dillon: Charging2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Yurov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Hischier – Mercer12:52
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 8–9goals 3–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hughes10:37
xG 0.88–0.85 (51%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Brown – Glass – Gritsyuk10:53
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Glendening – Cotter7:33
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Hamilton13:59
xG 1.36–0.33 (80%)attempts 16–11goals 3–0
- Pesce – Hughes18:20
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Siegenthaler – Kovacevic17:20
xG 0.55–1.30 (30%)attempts 10–33goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Hartman – Boldy10:05
xG 0.91–0.39 (70%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Foligno – Tarasenko – Sturm8:13
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Trenin – Jones6:47
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Yurov11:56
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Faber22:01
xG 1.07–0.79 (57%)attempts 28–18goals 1–2
- Middleton – Hunt11:10
xG 0.08–0.25 (24%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin12:35
xG 0.71–1.09 (39%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).