Mon, Jan 12, 2026·United Center, Chicago
Edmonton Oilers 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 116 | 211 | 437 |
| CHI | 05 | 012 | 113 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:41EDMZach HymanAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 0:16EDMEvan BouchardGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 14:46CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Wyatt Kaiser · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 19:07EDMEvan BouchardENAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 19:15EDMLeon DraisaitlUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 9:55EDMMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:53CHIColton Dach: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:51CHIRyan Greene: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:32EDMSpencer Stastney: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin12:24
xG 1.07–0.69 (61%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:19
xG 0.36–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Janmark – Lazar – Frederic6:19
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:38
xG 0.89–0.61 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:59
xG 1.80–0.94 (66%)attempts 23–17goals 2–0
- Regula – Stastney11:29
xG 0.70–0.47 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Nurse – Emberson15:24
xG 0.91–0.81 (53%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Mikheyev – Slaggert11:39
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 0–2
- Burakovsky – Lardis – Moore3:29
xG 0.39–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Lardis – Moore2:43
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Lardis – Moore3:43
xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Crevier14:03
xG 0.77–0.55 (59%)attempts 17–9goals 0–2
- Kaiser – Levshunov12:46
xG 0.85–0.98 (47%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Murphy – Kaiser2:50
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).