Mon, Jan 12, 2026·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Dallas Stars 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 13 | 06 | 29 | 318 |
| LAK | 05 | 013 | 17 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Sam Steel, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 8:42LAKQuinton ByfieldPPAssists: Corey Perry, Brandt Clarke · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 16:14DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Roope Hintz, Esa Lindell · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 19:42DALMatt DucheneENAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 10:52DALMikko Rantanen: Embellishment2 min
- P2 10:52LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
- P3 5:02DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:08DALNils Lundkvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steel won the faceoff against Laferriere
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Bourque14:28
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Faksa – Bastian – Bäck7:01
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston12:09
xG 0.38–0.37 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Benn – Duchene – Hryckowian8:54
xG 0.02–0.13 (16%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Harley13:50
xG 0.56–0.07 (89%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen19:16
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Capobianco – Harley2:45
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Turcotte – Kuzmenko9:57
xG 0.27–0.08 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Lee – Helenius – Ward5:55
xG 0.09–0.08 (51%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kempe – Laferriere – Malott10:32
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Perry – Foegele – Byfield11:22
xG 0.09–0.22 (28%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Ceci12:29
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson18:08
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Clarke13:20
xG 0.06–0.46 (12%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).