Tue, Jan 13, 2026·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Calgary Flames 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 27 | 117 | 332 |
| CBJ | 210 | 014 | 319 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:57CBJDante FabbroAssists: Zach Werenski, Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 13:24CBJCharlie CoyleAssists: Jake Christiansen, Dmitri Voronkov · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 12:00CGYMorgan FrostPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Yegor Sharangovich · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 19:18CGYRasmus AnderssonPPAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Connor Zary · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 4:46CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko · Snap, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 10:05CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Morgan Frost, Connor Zary · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 18:26CBJBoone JennerGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 19:57CBJCharlie CoyleENAssists: Boone Jenner, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.81 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P2 2:14CGYBrayden Pachal: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:15CBJBoone Jenner: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 9:15CGYRasmus Andersson: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:09CBJZach Werenski: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:56CGYMorgan Frost: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:13CBJAdam Fantilli: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 2:54CGYYegor Sharangovich: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:01CGYYan Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:28CBJDante Fabbro: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Zary – Klapka4:58
xG 0.87–0.15 (86%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Frost – Farabee2:44
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Stromgren5:33
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Farabee8:39
xG 0.42–0.52 (45%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Pachal10:14
xG 0.90–0.22 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl15:58
xG 0.73–0.88 (45%)attempts 12–21goals 0–2
- Weegar – Kuznetsov18:25
xG 0.73–0.96 (43%)attempts 23–21goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Monahan – Johnson12:03
xG 0.83–0.51 (62%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Gaunce – Heinen – Pyyhtia5:08
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Voronkov8:34
xG 0.85–0.81 (51%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Marchenko – Sillinger – Fantilli11:25
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayo – Christiansen6:43
xG 0.47–0.12 (79%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Provorov – Zamula17:10
xG 0.71–0.63 (53%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Werenski – Fabbro16:14
xG 1.12–1.07 (51%)attempts 23–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).