Tue, Jan 13, 2026·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 0, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 012 | 02 | 024 |
| BOS | 013 | 112 | 216 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:59BOSPavel ZachaGWGAssists: Mason Lohrei, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 3:49BOSFraser MintenAssists: Charlie McAvoy, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P3 16:01BOSMark KastelicENAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Sean Kuraly · Backhand, 0.77 xG0–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:59BOSElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:35DETBen Chiarot: Interference2 min
- P3 11:49DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka: Holding2 min
- P3 12:39BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat12:52
xG 1.13–0.43 (72%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Larkin – Kasper – Finnie9:09
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Appleton – Rasmussen – Soderblom11:25
xG 0.40–0.43 (49%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Raymond10:42
xG 0.15–1.05 (13%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson20:22
xG 1.28–0.56 (69%)attempts 23–15goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson10:44
xG 0.05–0.38 (12%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Johansson2:46
xG 0.04–0.39 (10%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestArvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt10:09
xG 1.30–0.08 (94%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie2:03
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic9:42
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Geekie – Steeves – Minten7:59
xG 0.44–0.74 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Jokiharju15:29
xG 0.71–0.21 (78%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Peeke – Lohrei14:07
xG 1.20–0.91 (57%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- McAvoy – Aspirot17:20
xG 0.78–0.84 (48%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).