Tue, Jan 13, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Carolina Hurricanes 0, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 011 | 013 | 033 |
| STL | 07 | 314 | 010 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:09STLNick BjugstadSHGWGAssists: Otto Stenberg, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 9:45STLDalibor DvorskyAssists: Jake Neighbours, Tyler Tucker · Snap, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 12:49STLJimmy SnuggerudPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:31STLBrayden Schenn: Holding2 min
- P2 1:42STLLogan Mailloux: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:07CARSebastian Aho: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:00CARMike Reilly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:39STLTyler Tucker: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:38CARSean Walker: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Walker won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Robinson – Kotkaniemi11:41
xG 0.73–0.21 (78%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Hall – Aho – Jarvis2:29
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Svechnikov – Stankoven3:48
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis7:38
xG 0.21–0.33 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller18:20
xG 1.00–0.55 (65%)attempts 30–12goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield13:42
xG 0.54–0.77 (41%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Reilly – Nikishin11:46
xG 0.18–0.59 (24%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestKyrou – Neighbours – Dvorsky9:49
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Schenn – Snuggerud – Stenberg10:39
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Buchnevich – Berggren6:49
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko8:49
xG 0.09–0.20 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Tucker15:24
xG 1.09–0.70 (61%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Fowler – Parayko16:46
xG 0.54–0.60 (47%)attempts 11–27goals 0–0
- Kessel – Mailloux14:20
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).