Tue, Jan 13, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 3, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 113 | 26 | 011 | 01 | 331 |
| NSH | 110 | 26 | 010 | 11 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:45NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Michael Bunting · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 17:06EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 3:03NSHErik HaulaAssists: Matthew Wood, Adam Wilsby · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 7:20EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Vasily Podkolzin · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 13:12EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Poke, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 13:50NSHRoman JosiAssists: Nick Blankenburg · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 3:43NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:03EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:18NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:50NSHJustin Barron: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:58EDMKasperi Kapanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:15NSHNick Blankenburg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:48EDMAndrew Mangiapane: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 11:08NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:48EDMMattias Janmark: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Mangiapane – Roslovic – Savoie9:00
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Draisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin12:33
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:22
xG 0.45–0.65 (41%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Janmark – Frederic – Howard4:29
xG 0.02–0.47 (4%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Emberson13:23
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Nurse – Walman3:34
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Emberson – Stastney2:13
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Haula – Bunting9:14
xG 0.97–0.17 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista11:07
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Jost – Svechkov – Wood7:15
xG 0.11–0.07 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- McCarron – Smith – Schaefer7:52
xG 0.03–0.27 (11%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarron – Blankenburg11:35
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Josi – Perbix13:01
xG 0.82–0.56 (59%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Skjei – Wilsby13:29
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).