Tue, Jan 13, 2026·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 1, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 010 | 18 | 125 |
| ANA | 012 | 16 | 27 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:36ANAChris KreiderAssists: Mikael Granlund, Radko Gudas · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 12:03ANABeckett SenneckeGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 17:48DALRoope HintzAssists: Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 19:39ANAJacob TroubaENAssists: Jackson LaCombe · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:48DALNils Lundkvist: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:43ANAMikael Granlund: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:27ANAOlen Zellweger: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:31DALJason Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:12ANARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Bourque6:55
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Hintz – Robertson2:32
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston8:40
xG 0.23–0.24 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Bäck3:00
xG 0.01–0.08 (11%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Capobianco – Lyubushkin8:35
xG 0.36–0.43 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Lindell – Lyubushkin2:25
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist13:46
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Granlund – Sennecke11:50
xG 0.77–0.07 (92%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Kreider – Strome – McTavish11:36
xG 0.69–0.13 (84%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Johnston – Harkins – Poehling8:29
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Johnston – Harkins – Washe2:23
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Zellweger9:11
xG 1.14–0.03 (97%)attempts 26–2goals 0–0
- Helleson – Mintyukov11:00
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Trouba – LaCombe14:55
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).