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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 14, 2026·Prudential Center, Newark

Seattle Kraken 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.

NJD winsSEA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
SEA14170501217
NJD151100813326

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:54NJDCody GlassAssists: Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:55SEAAdam LarssonAssists: Jared McCann, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 3:33NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P2 5:06SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. OT 3:42NJDNico HischierGWGAssists: Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 5:53SEAAdam Larsson: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 9:55NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 3:10SEABen Meyers: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P2 5:01NJDCody Glass: Roughing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SEA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
47% to win53% to win
← SEA attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Hischier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SEANJD
17Shots on goal26
2.5Expected goals2.6
47Shot attempts60
22Faceoffs won25
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
20Hits14
17Blocked shots12
18Giveaways15
3Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Seattle Kraken

Forward lines

  1. bestMcCann – Wright – Catton8:54

    xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0

  2. Eberle – Kakko – Beniers14:51

    xG 0.27–0.53 (34%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0

  3. Gaudreau – Winterton – Meyers7:40

    xG 0.05–0.47 (10%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0

  4. Schwartz – Stephenson – Tolvanen12:05

    xG 0.18–0.59 (23%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestLarsson – Dunn19:00

    xG 0.88–0.68 (56%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0

  2. Lindgren – Fleury17:32

    xG 0.42–0.62 (40%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0

  3. Oleksiak – Evans13:21

    xG 0.01–0.74 (1%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1

New Jersey Devils

Forward lines

  1. bestBrown – Glass – Gritsyuk9:47

    xG 0.51–0.05 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0

  2. Meier – Bratt – Hughes12:31

    xG 0.52–0.23 (70%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0

  3. Dadonov – Glendening – Cotter5:22

    xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0

  4. Palat – Hischier – Mercer11:53

    xG 0.36–0.67 (35%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestHamilton – Siegenthaler16:53

    xG 1.06–0.29 (79%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0

  2. Pesce – Hughes16:19

    xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0

  3. Dillon – Nemec14:48

    xG 0.36–0.51 (41%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.6 xGSEA 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDSEA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 44/100 · #776 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.42 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 46% (winner's lowest chance)
SEA 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.

NJD winsSEA wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − SEA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).