Thu, Jan 15, 2026·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 6, Minnesota Wild 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 310 | 310 | 09 | 629 |
| MIN | 011 | 113 | 110 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:08WPGJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.38 xG1–0
- P1 19:49WPGTanner PearsonAssists: Morgan Barron, Dylan DeMelo · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 19:57WPGJosh MorrisseyGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 4:53MINDanila YurovAssists: Jake Middleton, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 9:33WPGLogan StanleyUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P2 12:51WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–1
- P2 17:12WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Alex Iafallo, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–1
- P3 17:18MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Matt Boldy, Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.22 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:43MINMatt Boldy: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:15MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:23WPGLuke Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:30MINMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:05MINNico Sturm: Abuse of officials2 min · PPG
- P2 15:03WPGAlex Iafallo: Interference2 min
- P3 4:27WPGLogan Stanley: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Yurov won the faceoff against Barron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Barron – Koepke8:56
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo11:22
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Namestnikov9:04
xG 0.04–0.22 (15%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Toews – Vilardi – Perfetti9:52
xG 0.20–0.87 (18%)attempts 4–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Morrissey2:05
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey12:51
xG 0.62–0.42 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Samberg – Salomonsson13:16
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Tarasenko – Sturm7:11
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Boldy8:08
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Foligno – Trenin – Sturm2:09
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Yurov10:31
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton10:52
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Hunt – Spacek6:42
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Hughes – Spacek2:51
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).