Thu, Jan 15, 2026·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 3, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 26 | 011 | 16 | 323 |
| CHI | 19 | 09 | 05 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:38CHINick FolignoAssists: Colton Dach, Landon Slaggert · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 3:14CGYYegor SharangovichPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Connor Zary · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 6:05CGYMikael BacklundSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 18:59CGYMatt CoronatoENAssists: Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:04CHIMatt Grzelcyk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:15CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:34CGYMacKenzie Weegar: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:23CGYDevin Cooley: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:09CGYJoel Hanley: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:16CHIOliver Moore: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:51CGYJoel Farabee: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:51CHIConnor Murphy: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:30CHIRyan Donato: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30CHIRyan Donato: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30CHIArtyom Levshunov: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30CGYDryden Hunt: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:20CGYConnor Zary: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:37CGYYegor Sharangovich: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:37CHIIlya Mikheyev: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Sharangovich – Coronato9:25
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kirkland – Hunt – Lomberg3:19
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Frost – Farabee7:21
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Kadri – Zary – Klapka11:52
xG 0.29–0.59 (33%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl15:16
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Weegar – Kuznetsov13:39
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Hanley – Brzustewicz10:15
xG 0.27–0.71 (28%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Bertuzzi – Mikheyev7:34
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Slaggert – Dach6:00
xG 0.29–0.18 (61%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Donato – Lardis – Moore7:04
xG 0.02–0.01 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Greene – Bedard10:07
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Crevier11:18
xG 0.94–0.32 (74%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Murphy – Grzelcyk9:43
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 1–6goals 1–0
- Crevier – Kaiser2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).