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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 16, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh

Florida Panthers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 9

Away

Florida Panthers

1

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

9

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 89% of the time.

CAR winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA031508116
CAR112211613936

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:35CARNikolaj EhlersAssists: Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook · Slap, 0.24 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:19FLAUvis BalinskisAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Sandis Vilmanis · Slap, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:10CARMark JankowskiGWGAssists: Alexander Nikishin, Mike Reilly · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P2 16:28CARAlexander NikishinPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
  5. P3 4:08CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.18 xG1–4
  6. P3 11:17CARNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.23 xG1–5
  7. P3 11:38CARTaylor HallPPAssists: Logan Stankoven, Mark Jankowski · Snap, 0.26 xG1–6
  8. P3 13:03CARNikolaj EhlersAssists: Logan Stankoven, Jackson Blake · Snap, 0.17 xG1–7
  9. P3 18:23CARTaylor HallAssists: Jackson Blake · Snap, 0.32 xG1–8
  10. P3 18:35CAREric RobinsonAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Mark Jankowski · Snap, 0.11 xG1–9
Penalties (17)
  1. P2 7:49CARJackson Blake: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P2 15:38FLADonovan Sebrango: Roughing2 min · PPG
  3. P2 15:38FLADonovan Sebrango: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 15:38CARSean Walker: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 0:00CARJalen Chatfield: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 0:00FLAMackie Samoskevich: Cross checking2 min
  7. P2 0:00FLASam Bennett: Misconduct10 min
  8. P3 1:19CARMike Reilly: Interference2 min
  9. P3 2:05FLAAnton Lundell: High sticking2 min
  10. P3 3:23FLASam Reinhart: Tripping2 min · PPG
  11. P3 4:19CARJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 8:42CARJordan Martinook: Interference2 min
  13. P3 10:11FLASandis Vilmanis: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
  14. P3 10:26FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min · PPG
  15. P3 11:00FLALuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 11:00CARAlexander Nikishin: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 13:51CARMike Reilly: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
47% to win53% to win
← FLA attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Aho
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLACAR
16Shots on goal36
1.6Expected goals4.4
35Shot attempts66
20Faceoffs won38
5Power plays5
29Penalty minutes19
19Hits30
13Blocked shots8
16Giveaways20
5Takeaways8

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. Kunin – Boqvist – Schwindt6:24

    xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

  2. Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell9:12

    xG 0.21–0.40 (34%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0

  3. Rodrigues – Samoskevich – Vilmanis8:21

    xG 0.43–0.69 (39%)attempts 9–17goals 1–2

  4. Verhaeghe – Bennett – Greer10:17

    xG 0.13–1.53 (8%)attempts 5–16goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. Petry – Mikkola4:06

    xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0

  2. Petry – Sebrango10:26

    xG 0.28–0.55 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2

  3. Ekblad – Forsling13:24

    xG 0.08–0.62 (12%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1

Carolina Hurricanes

Forward lines

  1. bestStaal – Martinook – Ehlers9:01

    xG 1.11–0.07 (94%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0

  2. Hall – Stankoven – Blake9:15

    xG 0.76–0.13 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0

  3. Jankowski – Robinson – Kotkaniemi9:08

    xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0

  4. Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis9:37

    xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestWalker – Miller16:02

    xG 1.74–0.31 (85%)attempts 27–9goals 1–1

  2. Slavin – Chatfield10:22

    xG 0.52–0.19 (74%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0

  3. Chatfield – Miller2:55

    xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 4.4 xGFLA 1.6 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 31/100 · #962 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.04 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 47% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 89% of the time.

CAR winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).