Sat, Jan 17, 2026·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Seattle Kraken 3, Utah Mammoth 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 112 | 27 | 02 | 321 |
| UTA | 112 | 28 | 311 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09SEAJordan EberleAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Matty Beniers · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 2:47UTAKevin StenlundSHAssists: Lawson Crouse, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 0:28UTANate SchmidtAssists: Jack McBain, Dylan Guenther · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 4:31UTANick SchmaltzAssists: Lawson Crouse, Nate Schmidt · Snap, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 15:11SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Vince Dunn, Berkly Catton · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P2 17:43SEAChandler StephensonAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 14:30UTANate SchmidtGWGAssists: Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 15:12UTALawson CrouseAssists: Clayton Keller, Nate Schmidt · Snap, 0.15 xG3–5
- P3 19:09UTABarrett HaytonENAssists: John Marino, Karel Vejmelka · Snap, 0.80 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:36UTABrandon Tanev: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:59UTAJack McBain: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:58UTADylan Guenther: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:30SEAJordan Eberle: Interference2 min
- P3 6:08SEAAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestMcCann – Wright – Catton5:28
xG 0.58–0.39 (59%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Stephenson – Gaudreau – Tolvanen6:51
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Eberle – Kakko – Beniers5:09
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Kakko – Wright – Catton4:32
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Evans2:28
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Evans13:12
xG 0.57–0.65 (47%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
- Montour – Lindgren13:05
xG 0.45–0.69 (40%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Crouse – Keller11:10
xG 1.35–0.61 (69%)attempts 18–12goals 3–1
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev6:13
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Carcone – McBain – Guenther9:41
xG 0.68–0.67 (50%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Hayton – Peterka – But9:50
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Marino15:35
xG 1.01–0.58 (64%)attempts 20–16goals 4–0
- Sergachev – Durzi13:18
xG 1.16–0.95 (55%)attempts 16–12goals 0–2
- Cole – DeSimone11:24
xG 0.29–0.26 (52%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).