Sat, Jan 17, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Nashville Predators 2, Vegas Golden Knights 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 011 | 19 | 229 |
| VGK | 015 | 210 | 511 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:10NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Roman Josi · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 17:17VGKAlexander HoltzAssists: Shea Theodore, Cole Reinhardt · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 18:22VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Jeremy Lauzon, Keegan Kolesar · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 5:52VGKPavel DorofeyevGWGAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 8:52VGKMark StoneAssists: Jack Eichel, Zach Whitecloud · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 12:26VGKCole ReinhardtAssists: Alexander Holtz, Tanner Laczynski · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 13:16VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Reilly Smith, Akira Schmid · Snap, 0.07 xG1–6
- P3 15:12VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Tomas Hertl, Braeden Bowman · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–7
- P3 19:38NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:01NSHReid Schaefer: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:39VGKMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:22NSHMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:22VGKTomas Hertl: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:31VGKJack Eichel: Interference2 min
- P3 18:12VGKBen Hutton: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Jost – Svechkov8:42
xG 0.42–0.28 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- McCarron – Smith – Schaefer9:35
xG 0.41–0.44 (49%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista10:57
xG 0.31–0.54 (36%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Haula – Bunting10:19
xG 0.20–0.92 (18%)attempts 8–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBarron – Blankenburg12:35
xG 0.62–0.40 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
- Josi – Skjei15:02
xG 0.69–0.82 (46%)attempts 15–20goals 1–2
- Hague – Perbix14:33
xG 0.16–0.91 (15%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel11:47
xG 0.98–0.23 (81%)attempts 19–5goals 1–1
- Smith – Marner – Dorofeyev11:04
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Hertl – Kolesar – Bowman9:31
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Laczynski – Reinhardt – Holtz8:03
xG 0.40–0.46 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Korczak14:39
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 11–13goals 3–0
- Theodore – Lauzon13:32
xG 0.78–0.53 (59%)attempts 24–12goals 3–1
- Hanifin – Whitecloud15:24
xG 0.63–0.61 (51%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).