Sun, Jan 18, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 0, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 012 | 08 | 027 |
| EDM | 312 | 16 | 110 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:55EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPGWGAssists: Evan Bouchard, Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 11:52EDMAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 18:43EDMZach HymanAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Vasily Podkolzin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 10:52EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
- P3 1:19EDMVasily PodkolzinAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.25 xG0–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:56EDMTrent Frederic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 5:18STLBrayden Schenn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:24EDMEvan Bouchard: Interference2 min
- P1 12:57STLNathan Walker: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:01STLTyler Tucker: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:14EDMMattias Ekholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:19EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Neighbours – Snuggerud9:48
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Buchnevich – Stenberg7:15
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko6:04
xG 0.10–0.40 (20%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Kyrou – Holloway – Dvorsky8:06
xG 0.25–0.65 (28%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Tucker6:29
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Broberg – Mailloux7:49
xG 0.44–0.24 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Fowler – Mailloux6:33
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Podkolzin11:20
xG 1.04–0.76 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- Janmark – Lazar – Mangiapane5:29
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Roslovic – Howard – Savoie9:26
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard14:52
xG 1.61–0.39 (80%)attempts 21–14goals 3–0
- Nurse – Emberson16:05
xG 0.15–0.53 (22%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Walman – Stastney12:42
xG 0.38–1.08 (26%)attempts 6–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).