Mon, Jan 19, 2026·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
San Jose Sharks 4, Florida Panthers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 08 | 311 | 19 | 428 |
| FLA | 010 | 09 | 117 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:50SJSWill SmithAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 2:41SJSVincent DesharnaisGWGAssists: Igor Chernyshov, Michael Misa · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 6:12SJSMario FerraroAssists: Igor Chernyshov, Michael Misa · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 0:43FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 17:21SJSBarclay GoodrowENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.79 xG4–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:44FLAJesper Boqvist: Holding2 min
- P1 8:41SJSVincent Desharnais: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:41FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:41SJSVincent Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:30SJSPavol Regenda: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:30FLAUvis Balinskis: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:30SJSPavol Regenda: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:02FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:00SJSVincent Desharnais: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:00SJSAlex Nedeljkovic: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P3 6:00FLASergei Bobrovsky: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P3 6:00FLASergei Bobrovsky: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:00SJSAlex Nedeljkovic: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:08FLAAnton Lundell: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:08SJSWilliam Eklund: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:39FLAJesper Boqvist: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestRegenda – Chernyshov – Misa7:51
xG 0.40–0.11 (79%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Eklund8:10
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Graf9:14
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Eklund – Smith – Celebrini2:04
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Liljegren13:33
xG 0.93–0.36 (72%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Desharnais – Dickinson10:48
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Ferraro2:08
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell10:59
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Tkachuk – Samoskevich5:22
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Greer4:04
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Greer – Rodrigues – Vilmanis2:43
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling17:37
xG 1.00–0.40 (71%)attempts 24–14goals 1–0
- Petry – Bjornfot9:08
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Balinskis8:57
xG 0.22–0.98 (19%)attempts 6–12goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).