Mon, Jan 19, 2026·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
New York Islanders 4, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 215 | 19 | 433 |
| VAN | 212 | 012 | 18 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:49VANMax SassonAssists: Linus Karlsson, Nils Hoglander · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 10:11NYIAnthony DuclairAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Matthew Schaefer · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 14:48VANEvander KaneAssists: Elias Pettersson, David Kampf · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 14:34NYIAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 15:58NYIRyan PulockAssists: Matthew Schaefer, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 10:15NYITony DeAngeloGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 18:09VANDrew O'ConnorAssists: Filip Hronek · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 9:51NYICalum Ritchie: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:10VANMax Sasson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:03VANDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:24VANTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:08NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Duclair – Barzal11:33
xG 0.97–0.76 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Heineman – Ritchie – Tsyplakov4:09
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- MacLean – Heineman – Ritchie2:02
xG 0.03–0.16 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb7:42
xG 0.09–0.31 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Boqvist11:16
xG 0.78–0.23 (77%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Pulock – Schaefer13:48
xG 0.65–1.11 (37%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – DeBrusk – Pettersson10:55
xG 0.95–0.54 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Hoglander – Sasson6:43
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Kane – Kampf – O'Connor12:29
xG 1.00–1.12 (47%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Garland – Räty – Ohgren8:04
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Hronek4:11
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Willander9:45
xG 0.52–0.28 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Hronek – Buium2:49
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).