Tue, Jan 20, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
Minnesota Wild 3, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 12 | 110 | 18 | 320 |
| MTL | 215 | 19 | 19 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:44MINVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 15:22MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Josh Anderson, Kaiden Guhle · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 19:08MTLAlexandre CarrierAssists: Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 10:16MINBrock FaberAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Vinnie Hinostroza · Snap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 12:35MTLLane HutsonAssists: Ivan Demidov, Jayden Struble · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 12:40MINVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 19:45MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Slap, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:29MTLPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:53MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:21MINRyan Hartman: Interference2 min
- P2 18:47MTLLane Hutson: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:45MINNico Sturm: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:33MTLLane Hutson: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:49MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Hinostroza – Haight8:31
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Trenin – Sturm2:25
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov15:58
xG 0.48–0.64 (43%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Jones – Sturm4:27
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Middleton15:37
xG 0.57–0.81 (41%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
- Hughes – Faber21:54
xG 0.52–0.86 (37%)attempts 18–23goals 1–1
- Hunt – Spacek8:00
xG 0.05–0.68 (7%)attempts 1–24goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov10:12
xG 0.86–0.43 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield13:05
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson8:03
xG 0.53–0.41 (57%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Evans – Veleno – Bolduc8:24
xG 0.32–0.22 (60%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Guhle11:52
xG 1.04–0.31 (77%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Struble – Hutson10:07
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Dobson – Hutson3:06
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).