Tue, Jan 20, 2026·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 27 | 07 | 27 | 421 |
| CBJ | 15 | 010 | 07 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34OTTTyler KlevenAssists: Claude Giroux, Michael Amadio · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:46CBJSean MonahanAssists: Boone Jenner, Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 10:15OTTTim StützleGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 6:49OTTRidly GreigAssists: Dylan Cozens, Thomas Chabot · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 16:54OTTBrady TkachukENAssists: Tim Stützle, Ridly Greig · Wrist, 0.81 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:19CBJBoone Jenner: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:22OTTTyler Kleven: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:24CBJMathieu Olivier: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:24OTTRidly Greig: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:58OTTMichael Amadio: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:58CBJSean Monahan: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:15OTTShane Pinto: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:48CBJIvan Provorov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Eller – Cousins7:59
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Batherson – Stützle8:27
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto10:01
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig8:35
xG 0.21–0.29 (43%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven12:49
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub14:07
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot14:56
xG 0.40–0.60 (40%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Sillinger – Fantilli10:40
xG 0.33–0.08 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Voronkov4:09
xG 0.22–0.00 (98%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Coyle – Heinen – Olivier3:22
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Gaunce – Heinen – Aston-Reese3:43
xG 0.02–0.10 (16%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski13:39
xG 0.71–0.51 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
- Gudbranson – Provorov14:09
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Christiansen – Zamula9:49
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).