Tue, Jan 20, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 1, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 06 | 111 | 06 | 123 |
| WPG | 26 | 08 | 12 | 316 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:52WPGJosh MorrisseyPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:25WPGMark ScheifelePPGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 17:23STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Dalibor Dvorsky · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 17:37WPGMark ScheifeleENAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:39STLNathan Walker: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 19:28WPGJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:35WPGVladislav Namestnikov: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 2:27STLDalibor Dvorsky: Holding2 min
- P3 6:41WPGIsaak Phillips: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours10:24
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Snuggerud – Stenberg8:36
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Berggren – Dvorsky7:29
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Walker – Toropchenko6:46
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg13:58
xG 0.69–0.17 (81%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Tucker – Mailloux3:05
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Faulk – Tucker8:39
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Pearson – Barron6:42
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Toews – Vilardi – Perfetti9:08
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo11:23
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Namestnikov9:17
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stanley – Phillips2:36
xG 0.03–0.00 (86%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stanley – Samberg10:03
xG 0.32–0.30 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Samberg2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).