Wed, Jan 21, 2026·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Utah Mammoth 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 214 | 210 | 05 | 00 | 429 |
| UTA | 07 | 210 | 29 | 11 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30PHICam YorkAssists: Christian Dvorak, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 4:36PHIChristian DvorakAssists: Travis Konecny, Noah Juulsen · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 0:58PHIBobby BrinkPPAssists: Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 5:35UTAJJ PeterkaAssists: Daniil But · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
- P2 6:11UTALawson CrouseAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 10:28PHIChristian DvorakPPAssists: Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 12:47UTADylan GuentherPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Mikhail Sergachev · Tip-in, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 19:25UTAClayton KellerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–4
- OT 2:01UTAClayton KellerGWGAssists: Dylan Guenther · Snap, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:39PHINick Seeler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 2:18UTABarrett Hayton: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:18UTALiam O'Brien: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:00UTANick Schmaltz: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:35UTABrandon Tanev: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 11:00UTAJJ Peterka: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:54PHINick Seeler: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:52UTAIan Cole: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:49PHINoah Juulsen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:49UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:49PHINoah Juulsen: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Konecny – Zegras8:25
xG 1.00–0.35 (74%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
- Couturier – Tippett – Barkey7:09
xG 0.65–0.22 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Pederson – Grebenkin7:01
xG 0.04–0.14 (24%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Michkov7:51
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale4:14
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Andrae – Drysdale7:59
xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Seeler – Juulsen10:03
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestO'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev4:22
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hayton – Peterka – But8:55
xG 0.36–0.22 (63%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Carcone – McBain – Guenther9:04
xG 0.55–0.64 (46%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Keller10:07
xG 0.43–0.84 (34%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – DeSimone9:24
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Durzi13:01
xG 0.64–0.77 (45%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Schmidt – Marino14:55
xG 0.47–0.88 (35%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).