Wed, Jan 21, 2026·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Washington Capitals 3, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 211 | 012 | 19 | 332 |
| VAN | 210 | 211 | 04 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:25WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Tom Wilson, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 9:43WSHJustin SourdifPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–0
- P1 13:32VANBrock BoeserAssists: David Kampf · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 18:22VANEvander KaneAssists: Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 8:58VANDrew O'ConnorAssists: David Kampf, Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 11:43VANFilip HronekGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Tom Willander · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 16:37WSHDylan StromeAssists: Justin Sourdif, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:11VANMax Sasson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:02VANMarcus Pettersson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:53VANLinus Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 3:33WSHJohn Carlson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:19WSHConnor McMichael: Holding2 min
- P2 11:02VANEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:02WSHRyan Leonard: Holding2 min
- P2 15:12WSHRyan Leonard: Interference2 min
- P3 7:03VANNils Hoglander: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:03WSHMatt Roy: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sourdif won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Leonard4:05
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Duhaime – Lapierre2:57
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Dowd – Beauvillier – Duhaime3:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Strome – McMichael – Leonard4:09
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin3:08
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin6:35
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Roy – Sandin7:23
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – Kampf – O'Connor7:10
xG 0.83–0.42 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Blueger – Garland – Ohgren9:37
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 20–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Hoglander – Sasson5:13
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrusk – Pettersson9:38
xG 0.07–0.68 (9%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Willander10:07
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Hronek – Buium12:22
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Myers – Pettersson10:08
xG 0.62–0.65 (49%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).