Thu, Jan 22, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Florida Panthers 2, Winnipeg Jets 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 17 | 05 | 02 | 2 | 220 |
| WPG | 05 | 05 | 17 | 01 | 0 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:49FLASam BennettAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 5:24WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Jonathan Toews · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. WPG Kyle Connor stopped
- 2. FLA Anton Lundell scored
- 3. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
- 4. FLA Sam Reinhart scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:48FLAEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:28WPGAlex Iafallo: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:32FLAGustav Forsling: Holding2 min
- P3 3:30FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:30WPGAdam Lowry: Interference2 min
- P3 5:38FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:38FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:38WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:38WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Rodrigues – Samoskevich9:45
xG 0.65–0.19 (78%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Kunin – Schwindt – Vilmanis4:21
xG 0.06–0.01 (92%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell12:37
xG 0.07–0.25 (23%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk12:36
xG 0.24–0.91 (21%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMikkola – Balinskis15:33
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Petry – Bjornfot9:32
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling17:48
xG 0.42–0.50 (45%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Namestnikov11:05
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Pearson – Barron – Koepke5:53
xG 0.02–0.06 (22%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo14:23
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Vilardi – Perfetti11:40
xG 0.44–0.62 (42%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey17:17
xG 0.76–0.30 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Samberg – Salomonsson13:14
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stanley9:44
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).