Thu, Jan 22, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 39 | 210 | 14 | 623 |
| EDM | 012 | 110 | 110 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Justin Brazeau, Connor Clifton · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 2:42PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Justin Brazeau, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 2:57PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Ryan Shea, Jack St. Ivany · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 5:19EDMJake WalmanSHAssists: Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 12:29PITRickard RakellAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 14:27PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 2:50PITEgor ChinakhovAssists: Tommy Novak, Jack St. Ivany · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–1
- P3 13:57EDMMatt SavoieAssists: Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:54EDMSpencer Stastney: Interference2 min
- P1 11:25PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:47EDMConnor McDavid: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:57PITBen Kindel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMantha – Brazeau – Kindel11:18
xG 0.59–0.18 (76%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov10:42
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte11:36
xG 0.67–0.64 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell10:58
xG 0.23–0.50 (31%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon13:18
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Shea – St. Ivany13:25
xG 0.80–0.71 (53%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Kulak – Clifton13:44
xG 0.62–0.65 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 3–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Mangiapane – Podkolzin6:42
xG 0.36–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:28
xG 0.24–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Janmark – Lazar – Frederic5:29
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Howard – Savoie7:21
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard16:15
xG 0.89–0.62 (59%)attempts 19–11goals 1–3
- Walman – Stastney10:18
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Emberson – Stastney2:25
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).