Thu, Jan 22, 2026·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Detroit Red Wings 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 115 | 17 | 01 | 334 |
| MIN | 111 | 017 | 210 | 11 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:19MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 16:22DETLucas RaymondAssists: Marco Kasper · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 0:37MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Faber · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 5:36DETJames van RiemsdykAssists: Emmitt Finnie, Travis Hamonic · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 6:11MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Ryan Hartman, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–3
- OT 0:45MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:01MINMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:26DETTravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:41DETJ.T. Compher: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:39DETJacob Bernard-Docker: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:33MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:52DETTravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat13:45
xG 0.98–0.46 (68%)attempts 19–11goals 0–2
- Larkin – Raymond – Kasper14:40
xG 0.59–0.34 (64%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Finnie6:23
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Appleton – Rasmussen – Soderblom8:21
xG 0.40–0.46 (46%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Johansson3:10
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka9:51
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Bernard-Docker – Seider12:50
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 1–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Trenin – Sturm4:38
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov16:46
xG 0.72–0.59 (55%)attempts 13–19goals 2–0
- Foligno – Hinostroza – Yurov6:29
xG 0.19–0.32 (38%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Johansson – Tarasenko – Eriksson Ek12:03
xG 0.47–0.71 (40%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Faber2:14
xG 0.19–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hunt – Jiricek7:42
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hughes – Faber19:01
xG 0.93–0.80 (54%)attempts 21–21goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).